Day 5 of Duterte Impeachment Trial: The “threat” the defense pointed to came from the Dutertes’ own camp

“So ngayon n’yo lang na-realize na ‘yun palang Oplan Romanov eh threat pala sa First Family?”

Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson asked NBI Regional Director Jeremy Lotoc that question on Tuesday, July 14, the fifth day of Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. Lotoc’s answer mattered more than the sarcasm in Lacson’s tone. He admitted he had not grasped the distinction himself until Sen. Raffy Tulfo clarified it earlier in the hearing: “Oplan Romanov” did not originate as a threat against the Dutertes. It originated as a warning from the Duterte camp, aimed at the Marcos family.

Duterte is on trial for the second time in Philippine history, the first time as a sitting vice president. Article IV accuses her of grave threats and inciting to sedition over a November 2024 online press conference where she said she had contracted someone to kill President Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and then-House Speaker Martin Romualdez if she were killed first. Her defense has framed those remarks as a response to “Oplan Romanov,” an alleged plot against her own life. Conviction needs 16 of 24 senator-judges. Five trial days in, the case now turns on where that plot narrative actually came from, and on whether the Senate can move fast enough to get through the rest of it.

Who coined “Romanov,” and who it was aimed at

Lotoc testified that investigators found the earliest public use of “Romanov” in a speech by Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, Sara’s brother, at a “Hakbang ng Maisug” rally. In it, Baste warned President Marcos to “think of the Romanovs” before he sleeps, an apparent reference to the execution of Russia’s last royal family.  In other words, the term began as a Duterte camp warning directed at the Marcoses, months before it resurfaced as the alleged justification for Sara Duterte’s own kill remarks.

The defense had used “Oplan Romanov” to frame those remarks as a defensive reaction to a plot against her family. Lotoc testified the NBI classified that alleged plot as “unvalidated” after the vlogger who raised it, “Princess Maui,” would not cooperate with investigators. Under cross-examination, Lotoc also conceded the NBI has no direct evidence identifying an actual hitman. He held to the position that Duterte’s own recorded statements are self-authenticating evidence of a threat, and cited her father’s pending ICC case over alleged extrajudicial killings as part of what gave her the practical capability to carry it out.

The trial is also racing a clock

Separately, the prosecution told the court it would no longer call two previously listed witnesses, Office of the Vice President chief of staff Zuleika Lopez and House security official Capt. Belinda Bello, on the grave threats article. Private prosecutor Lorna Kapunan said their testimony would be “unnecessary, redundant, and a surplusage” after Lotoc and NBI agent John Mark Calilung had already authenticated 64 documentary exhibits between them.

The move follows a warning a day earlier from Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian: at the pace of one witness per two trial days, with 102 witnesses listed, the trial could run 17 months. That same tension surfaced on Monday, July 13, when Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano objected to NBI Director Melvin Matibag’s request to move his own testimony up a day so he could attend a Bangkok summit on transnational crime. “I find it in bad taste that a bureau head will dictate to us that he’s not available next week,” Cayetano said. Note: this exchange happened on Day 4, not Day 5. Matibag’s public response, and the court’s decision to push his testimony to July 20, came out on Day 5. Matibag later said he had not meant to dictate anything to the court.

Five highlights from Day 5

1. “Oplan Romanov” traced to a Duterte, aimed at the Marcoses. Lotoc told the Senate investigators traced the term’s earliest public use to Baste Duterte’s own rally speech warning President Marcos and the First Family, not the other way around.
2. Lacson’s on-record “gotcha” moment. Lacson noted he had believed “Oplan Romanov” was a threat against Vice President Duterte until Sen. Raffy Tulfo’s questioning clarified the context during the trial. Lotoc conceded the point on the stand.
3. Prosecution drops two witnesses to speed things up. Kapunan said the panel no longer needed Zuleika Lopez or Capt. Belinda Bello’s testimony after Lotoc and NBI agent John Mark Calilung had already authenticated 64 documentary exhibits between them.
4. Gatchalian’s 17-month warning frames the pace problem. With 102 listed witnesses and roughly one witness per two trial days, the Senate President said the trial could run 17 months at the current pace.
5. Matibag’s rescheduling fight spills into Day 5. The court moved Matibag’s testimony to July 20. Matibag responded to Cayetano’s Day 4 “bad taste” remark by saying, in a Tuesday interview, that he was not dictating to the impeachment court.

What comes next

Presiding Officer Francis Escudero said the impeachment court will rule Wednesday, July 15, on the prosecution’s request to subpoena Duterte’s bank and tax records. That ruling, not another news cycle of dueling narratives, is the next real test of whether this trial moves at the pace of accountability or at the pace of procedure. Escudero has one day to decide which.