“The 6.4% figure they’ve reported is accurate for what it is, but it only tells one version of the story — think of it in the context of the five blind men and the elephant. ” – Ben Kritz.
The actual GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2012 was a moderate 4.31%, “not 6.4% as the government claims; still remarkably better than the previous quarter, but actually a little short of forecasts.”
Those real GDP figures, however, are based on constant prices from the year 2000. From an analytical standpoint one year is as good as another to use as a benchmark, but in real-world terms, the Pinoy economy and society of 2012 does not have that much in common with the last year of Joseph Estrada’s term in the pre-9/11, pre-Global Economic Crisis days of the peso trading at around 50 to the dollar. If, as the Aquino Administration and its supporters insist, this is truly “P-noy’s” economy, then the only legitimate way to measure his progress is to set the benchmark to the state in which it was delivered into his stewardship. Substituting the end of the 2nd quarter of 2010 – the day he took office – as the ‘constant’ for the year 2000 used now and recalculating the appropriate deflator variable (which in this case ranges from 1.039 to 1.33) to compensate for inflation paints an interesting picture.
Ben Kritz presents a technical Note on Philippine GDP Performance for the first quarter. This presents the data and calculations used as the basis of the article “Why You’re Not Feeling the Country’s Unexpected Economic Growth”. The scope of the GDP analysis covers the term of President B.S. Aquino III todate, from the end of the 2nd quarter of 2010 (30 June 2010) through the end of the 1st quarter of 2012 (31 March 2012)
Technical Note on Philippine GDP Performance